11 January 2023

• Environment: A UN report projected the ozone layer over Antarctica will fully recover by 2066, and globally by 2040, if Montreal Protocol progress continues.
• Economy: The World Bank slashed its global growth forecast for 2023 to 1.7 per cent, the third-weakest expansion in 30 years.
• Polity: Section 6A of the Citizenship Act, 1955 governing the Assam Accord's provisions faced a Supreme Court bench.
• Security: India deployed VSHORAD, a man-portable air-defence system suited for high-altitude deployment near the LAC.

GS area: Environment (international conventions, atmospheric science)

A UN scientific assessment projected that the ozone layer will recover to 1980 levels by 2066 over Antarctica, 2045 over the Arctic, and 2040 over the rest of the globe, if countries continue to honour Montreal Protocol commitments.

• Montreal Protocol (1987): The international treaty requiring the phase-out of ozone-depleting substances, primarily chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) used in refrigerants and aerosols. India joined in 1992.
• Progress: Nearly 99 per cent of the substances banned by the Montreal Protocol have been phased out globally.
• Kigali Amendment (2016): An amendment to the Montreal Protocol that targets hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). HFCs replaced CFCs and are not ozone-depleting, but they are potent greenhouse gases. The Kigali Amendment aims to reduce HFC production and consumption by 80 to 90 per cent by 2050.
• Climate co-benefit: The ozone recovery effort is expected to prevent 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius of additional warming by 2050.
• Why success is possible here but not on CO2: Ozone-depleting substances affected a relatively small number of industries, and viable alternatives existed. CO2 reduction requires transforming energy, agriculture, transport and lifestyle patterns simultaneously. That explains why climate action is harder politically.

Static linkage: International environmental conventions (GS Paper 3).

GS area: Economy (global economy)

The World Bank's January 2023 Global Economic Prospects report cut the global growth forecast for 2023 to 1.7 per cent, down from the earlier projection of 3 per cent.

• Rank: The third-weakest expansion in three decades, after the 2009 financial crisis contraction and the 2020 COVID-19 recession.
• South Asia: Projected growth of 4.8 per cent, comparatively better than other regions but below historical averages.
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Concern that 60 per cent of the world's extreme poor live in this region and will face severe consequences from tightening credit conditions globally.
• Causes of slowdown: Persistent inflation requiring monetary tightening, the Russia-Ukraine conflict's disruption of energy and food supply chains, and China's slower-than-expected economic activity.
• India: Expected to remain among the fastest-growing large economies at around 6.6 per cent for 2023-24, though below its pre-pandemic trajectory.

Static linkage: Global economy, international organisations (GS Papers 2 and 3).

GS area: Polity (citizenship, northeast India)

Section 6A of the Citizenship Act, 1955 was inserted in 1985 to give effect to the Assam Accord, which ended the six-year Assam agitation against illegal immigration from Bangladesh.

• Assam Accord: Signed 15 August 1985 between the Rajiv Gandhi government and the All Assam Students' Union. It set a cut-off date for citizenship in Assam.
• Section 6A provisions: Those who entered Assam before 1 January 1966 are deemed citizens. Those who entered between 1 January 1966 and 25 March 1971 are granted citizenship but with a 10-year bar on voting rights. Those who entered after 25 March 1971 are treated as illegal immigrants.
• Controversy: Critics argue the 1971 cut-off gives a more lenient treatment to illegal immigrants than the rest of India, where the general cut-off under Article 6 is 19 July 1948.
• Supreme Court: A Constitution Bench was examining whether Section 6A is constitutionally valid and whether it dilutes citizenship rights of original Assamese.
• NRC linkage: The National Register of Citizens exercise in Assam (completed 2019) was the administrative implementation of Section 6A's intent.

Static linkage: Citizenship, northeast India, polity (GS Papers 2 and 1).

GS area: Disaster Management, Geography (Indian climate)

The India Meteorological Department's official cold wave criteria are used to issue weather alerts for north India during winters. The definitions matter for disaster preparedness and public health.

• Cold wave declared when: The minimum temperature drops to 4 degrees Celsius or below. Alternatively, a cold wave is declared when the minimum temperature is below 10 degrees Celsius and is 4.5 to 6.4 degrees Celsius below the normal for that location and date.
• Severe cold wave: When the minimum temperature is 2 degrees Celsius below the cold wave threshold.
• Causes: Fog cover reduces daytime warming. Light winds prevent mixing of air layers. High atmospheric moisture creates dew and frost. Absence of Western Disturbances allows cold, dry continental air to flow unchecked from Central Asia.
• Western Disturbances: Low-pressure systems originating in the Mediterranean and Caspian regions that bring moisture and winter rain to northwest India. When they are active, temperatures are relatively milder.

Static linkage: Climatology, disaster management (GS Papers 1 and 3).

GS area: Science and Technology, Internal Security

DRDO developed the Very Short Range Air Defence (VSHORAD) system as a man-portable weapon system for protecting troops and forward positions against low-flying aerial threats at high altitudes.

• Capability: Engages helicopters, drones and low-altitude aircraft. Designed for mountain deployment near the Line of Actual Control with China.
• Comparison with Akash: Akash is a medium-range surface-to-air missile system with a range of about 25 kilometres. It is vehicle-mounted and not portable. VSHORAD fills the gap at very short ranges where portability matters.
• Context: China's deployment of drones along the LAC in 2022 made lightweight, portable air-defence systems a priority procurement for the Indian Army.

Static linkage: Defence technology, internal security (GS Paper 3).

• Global growth weakest performers: The World Bank identifies Sub-Saharan Africa as the region where a global slowdown hits hardest because 60 per cent of the world's extreme poor live there.
• US Title 42: A US COVID-era border policy allowing rapid expulsion of migrants. Extended to nationals from Nicaragua, Cuba and Haiti. Relevant as an international immigration policy case study.
• Montreal Protocol universality: Unique among international environmental treaties: it has 198 parties, meaning universal membership. The UNFCCC also has near-universal membership but targets emissions rather than specific substances.