7 February 2023

• Turkey: Aftershocks continued. India's rescue teams were on the ground. Analysis turned to why Turkey is so earthquake-prone and what building codes can prevent.
• Population: India projected to overtake China as the world's most populous country in 2023, with 1.43 billion people.
• Governance: Kerala reported a 300 per cent jump in drug cases over six years, from 9,245 (2019) to 26,629 (2022). Drug policy debate intensified.
• Environment: Ganga basin groundwater declining at 2.6 cm per year. Rajasthan, Haryana and Delhi face the steepest drops.

GS area: Geography, Disaster Management

Turkey is one of the world's most seismically active countries. Understanding why matters for both prelims and mains:

• Plate boundaries: the Anatolian plate (on which most of Turkey sits) is squeezed between the Eurasian plate to the north and the African and Arabian plates to the south. It cannot move north, so it rotates westward.
• North Anatolian Fault (NAF): runs east-west across northern Turkey from the Georgian border to the Aegean Sea. One of the world's most active strike-slip faults. Responsible for the 1999 Izmit earthquake (magnitude 7.6) that killed over 17,000 people.
• East Anatolian Fault (EAF): the fault responsible for the 6 February 2023 earthquake. Runs northeast-southwest through southeastern Turkey.
• Cyprian Arc and Dead Sea Transform: additional fault structures bounding the Anatolian plate to the south.
• Aftershocks: after the 7.8 main shock, hundreds of aftershocks followed. The 7.6 magnitude second event was technically a separate major earthquake, not merely an aftershock, because of its independent rupture.

Static linkage: Physical Geography (plate tectonics, fault types, earthquake geography of the world).

GS area: Society, Economy

The United Nations Population Division projected that India would surpass China as the world's most populous country in 2023:

• India: 1.4286 billion people (mid-2023 projection).
• China: 1.4118 billion. China's population was already declining due to its one-child policy legacy and falling birth rates.
• India's median age: 28.7 years. China's is 38.4 years. Japan's is 48.6 years. India's young median age is the foundation of the demographic dividend argument.
• Demographic dividend: the economic growth potential from a large working-age population relative to dependents. India's working-age share is projected to peak around the mid-2030s at approximately 57 per cent.
• The risk: demographic dividends are not automatic. They require jobs, skills and healthcare for the working-age population. Underemployment and lack of skilling policies can turn a dividend into a liability.
• Regional divergence: southern states (Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh) have total fertility rates below replacement. Northern states (Bihar, Uttar Pradesh) still have rates above replacement. Population growth and its implications are distributed unevenly.

Static linkage: Population (geography, society, economy).

GS area: Society, Governance

Kerala reported a 300 per cent jump in registered drug cases between 2019 and 2022:

• Numbers: 9,245 cases in 2019 rising to 26,629 in 2022. A 90 per cent increase in arrests in the same period.
• Drugs involved: heroin, charas and hashish seizures are rising. Cannabis remains the primary drug among teenagers.
• India's position: India is among the world's single-largest markets for opiates, located between the two major opium-producing zones (the Golden Crescent to the northwest and the Golden Triangle to the northeast).
• Legal framework: the Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances (NDPS) Act 1985 is the primary law. It prescribes rigorous punishment including mandatory minimum sentences.
• Narco-terrorism link: drugs and militancy financing share overlapping networks along India's border zones. Narcotic funding for insurgent groups has been documented in Punjab and Manipur.
• NCORD: the Narco Coordination Centre coordinates anti-drug operations across agencies (NCB, DRI, Coast Guard, state police).

Static linkage: Governance (NDPS Act, drug policy, internal security).

GS area: Environment, Geography

A study using three independent methods confirmed that the Ganga basin's groundwater table is falling at 2.6 cm per year on average:

• Worst-affected states: Rajasthan (14 cm per year decline), Haryana (7.5 cm), Delhi (7.2 cm). These states combine heavy agricultural groundwater use with low recharge.
• Methods used: Central Groundwater Board data, GRACE satellite gravimetry (which detects groundwater mass changes from orbit), and hydrological modelling.
• Drivers: over-abstraction for irrigation (paddy cultivation in Punjab and Haryana is a major cause), climate change (reduced monsoon recharge), and rapid urbanisation reducing percolation.
• GRACE satellites: the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite pair can detect minute gravitational changes caused by groundwater mass losses. This has revolutionised groundwater monitoring globally.
• Implications: groundwater depletion threatens agricultural sustainability and drinking water security for hundreds of millions of people in the Indo-Gangetic Plain.

Static linkage: Geography (rivers, water resources, groundwater).

GS area: International Relations

The EU-India TTC was described this week as the second such partnership after the US-EU model (established 2021):

• Three working groups: strategic technologies and digital governance; green and clean energy; trade, investment and supply chain resilience.
• Key technology areas: artificial intelligence governance, quantum computing, semiconductors and cybersecurity.
• Context: both the EU and India are trying to reduce their technology dependencies on a small number of suppliers.
• Comparison with India-US iCET: both the EU-India TTC and the iCET are bilateral technology cooperation frameworks. The iCET is more defence-oriented; the TTC has a stronger trade and standards dimension.

Static linkage: International Relations (India-EU relations, technology governance).

GS area: Governance, Social Justice

Rajasthan's open prison system received attention as an example of criminal justice reform:

• Open prisons: also called open camps or open correctional institutions. Prisoners are not confined in high-security enclosures but live in communities with limited supervision.
• Rajasthan: 40 open prison camps operating across the state. Prisoners in these facilities work, live with families, and contribute to communities.
• Cost: approximately Rs 500 per prisoner per month, compared to Rs 3,500 to 5,000 per prisoner in regular prisons. About 92 per cent lower staffing costs.
• Security record: zero recorded escapes from Rajasthan's open prisons.
• Philosophy: rehabilitation over retribution. Consistent with the reformative theory of punishment, which is one of the four recognised theories (retributive, deterrent, preventive, reformative).

Static linkage: Governance (prison reform, criminal justice, social justice).

• Voice deepfakes: ElevenLabs users created synthetic voice recordings of celebrities. A 2020 case where fake audio defrauded a UAE bank manager of $35 million was cited as a precedent. Regulatory frameworks for voice fraud remain underdeveloped.
• Bond types: Blue bonds finance marine and ocean projects. Yellow bonds finance solar energy projects. Transition bonds fund carbon reduction investments. These categories matter for green finance prelims questions.
• Wet lab technology: NISAR satellite antenna uses a 39-foot gold-plated wire mesh reflector. This detail is testable as a descriptive prelims question about the mission's specifications.