12 July 2023

• Disaster: The Yamuna in Delhi breached 208.66 metres, the highest flood level recorded in 45 years, surpassing the 1978 mark.
• Climate: North India's July rainfall was 26 per cent above normal. IMD defines extremely heavy rainfall as more than 205 mm in 24 hours.
• Society: India's demographics have dramatically changed women's life experiences since Independence: lower fertility, longer life, but persistent economic exclusion.
• Economy: India's multidimensional poverty declined steeply: 415 million people exited poverty between 2005 and 2021.
• Finance: India's twin-balance-sheet advantage, with bank NPAs at a ten-year low, is in sharp contrast to the stressed balance sheet period of 2016-17.

GS area: Geography, Disaster Management, Environment

The Yamuna River at the Old Railway Bridge gauging station in Delhi crossed the previous Highest Flood Level (HFL) set in 1978, reaching 208.66 metres on July 13.

• Warning system levels: Warning level at 204.50 metres, danger level at 205.33 metres, evacuation level at 206 metres.
• Record context: The previous record of 207.49 metres was set in 1978. The 2023 peak was 1.17 metres above it.
• Cause: Extremely heavy rainfall across Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, and Punjab, combined with discharge from the Hathnikund Barrage in Haryana into the Yamuna.
• Affected states: Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh all recorded widespread destruction. Close to 100 deaths were attributed to landslides, flash floods, and house collapses across north India.
• Delhi response: Approximately 30,000 residents were evacuated from low-lying flood plains. Schools and colleges were closed. Sixteen control rooms monitored water levels. National Disaster Response Force teams deployed.
• Structural critique: Experts cited heavy silt buildup in the Yamuna riverbed and poor inter-state coordination of barrage sluice gate operations as compounding factors.

Static linkage: Disaster management, river geography (Yamuna), climate and rainfall patterns.

GS area: Environment, Geography

India Meteorological Department data showed that overall seasonal monsoon rainfall in north India has been roughly constant over the past 20 years, but its distribution has shifted.

• IMD definition: Extremely heavy rainfall is more than 205 mm within 24 hours.
• Trend: Fewer rainy days now produce the bulk of the seasonal total. The intensity of individual events has increased.
• Arabian Sea warming: The Arabian Sea has warmed by approximately 1.5 degrees Celsius since January 2023. Warmer sea surfaces increase moisture loading in monsoon winds.
• July 2023 anomaly: North India recorded 26 per cent above-normal rainfall. In early June, the nationwide monsoon deficit had exceeded 50 per cent; by June-end it had recovered to only 8 per cent below normal.
• Convergence mechanism: Cyclone Biparjoy (June 2023) induced additional moisture flow, and western disturbances converging with monsoon winds over the plains intensified precipitation.

Static linkage: Indian monsoon, climate change, weather systems.

GS area: Society, Economy

The UNDP and Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative's Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) showed India's performance as one of the most dramatic poverty reduction stories in recent decades.

• Scale of exit: 415 million people exited multidimensional poverty between 2005-06 and 2019-21.
• Incidence: Fell from 55.1 per cent to 16.4 per cent over the same period.
• MPI methodology: Measures deprivation across 10 indicators spanning health, education, and standard of living. A person is counted as multidimensionally poor if deprived in 33 per cent or more of the weighted indicators.
• Remaining challenge: Child poverty stands at 27.7 per cent, nearly double the adult rate. Around 84 per cent of the remaining poor live in rural areas.
• BIMARU states: Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh showed the fastest rural poverty decline.

Static linkage: Social development, poverty measurement, rural-urban divide.

GS area: Economy

India's banking and corporate sectors have simultaneously improved their financial health, reversing the "twin balance sheet problem" that dominated from 2012 to 2017.

• Previous crisis: Gross NPAs in public sector banks peaked at 12 per cent in 2016-17. Overleveraged corporates and stressed banks created a mutual drag on growth.
• Current position: Gross NPA ratio fell to a ten-year low of 3.9 per cent. Corporate balance sheets were described as being at their healthiest in a decade.
• PSB profitability: Public sector bank profits tripled between 2014 and 2022-23, crossing 1 lakh crore rupees in aggregate.
• NARCL: The National Asset Reconstruction Company Limited was set up to acquire legacy bad loans with exposure above 500 crore rupees. The government renewed its guarantee backing NARCL's operations.

Static linkage: Banking sector, financial stability, economy.

GS area: Society

A review of India's demographic journey showed major changes in women's life experiences since Independence, but persistent economic exclusion.

• Fertility: Total Fertility Rate fell from 5.7 in 1950 to 2.1 in 2019, at replacement level.
• Survival: Sex-selective abortion declined; girl-child survival rates improved.
• The economic gap: Reduced fertility frees time but female labour force participation remains low. The NFHS data shows a large share of women aged 65 and above are widowed and dependent on sons.
• Policy focus: NREGS used creatively for crèche provision; self-help group networks for neighbourhood childcare are proposed as economic enablers.

Static linkage: Demography, women and society, labour markets.

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