4 June 2024

• Big news: counting day for the 18th Lok Sabha. NDA won 292 seats; BJP alone won 240, falling short of a solo majority of 272. The INDIA bloc won 234 seats.
• Polity: the result ends the BJP's outright majority it held since 2014. Coalition politics returns to the Centre. Key allies TDP (16 seats) and JD(U) (12 seats) become essential.
• State assemblies: Odisha and Andhra Pradesh also counted simultaneously. TDP won a landslide in Andhra Pradesh.
• Markets: Indian stock markets fell sharply as results diverged from exit-poll predictions of a larger NDA win.

GS area: Polity, Elections

Counting for all 543 Lok Sabha seats concluded on 4 June 2024. The NDA coalition led by BJP won 292 seats. The BJP alone won 240 seats, which is below the majority mark of 272 in the 543-member house.

• Majority mark: in a house of 543 elected members plus two Anglo-Indian nominees (since abolished in 2020), the magic number for a majority is 272. Today the house has 543 elected seats. A party or coalition needs 272 to command a majority.
• BJP's 240 seats: the first time since 2014 that BJP did not win an outright majority on its own. The party had won 282 in 2014 and 303 in 2019.
• NDA total: 292 seats. Key components beyond BJP: Telugu Desam Party (16 seats), Janata Dal (United) (12 seats), Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction) (7 seats).
• INDIA bloc: 234 seats. Congress won 99 seats, the highest for the party since 2014. Samajwadi Party won 37, Trinamool Congress 29, DMK 22.
• Others: 17 seats.
• Voter turnout: approximately 642 million voters cast their ballots out of 968 million registered. This is among the highest absolute turnout in any election globally.
• Article 75: the Council of Ministers is collectively responsible to the Lok Sabha. The President appoints as Prime Minister the person who commands the confidence of the house.

The return to coalition arithmetic after two majority governments is significant. Parties like TDP and JD(U) gain leverage on national policy decisions.

Static linkage: Parliament and state legislatures, elections, polity.

GS area: Polity

The 2024 results reignited the FPTP versus Proportional Representation debate. NDA won 292 seats (53.8 per cent of seats) with about 43.3 per cent of votes. The INDIA bloc won 234 seats (43.1 per cent) with about 41.6 per cent of votes.

• FPTP (First Past the Post): the Indian electoral system. The candidate with the most votes in a constituency wins, regardless of whether they have a majority. No threshold is required.
• Proportional Representation (PR): an alternative where parties receive seats in proportion to their vote share nationally or regionally. Used in South Africa, Israel and many European countries.
• Disproportionality: in FPTP, small swings in vote share produce large swings in seat share. A party winning 43 per cent of votes can win over 53 per cent of seats.
• Arguments for FPTP: produces stable governments with clear majorities; creates a direct link between MP and constituency; simpler for voters.
• Arguments for PR: more accurately represents voter preferences; reduces wasted votes; benefits smaller parties.
• Constitutional position: the Rajya Sabha uses indirect election by state assemblies through Single Transferable Vote (a form of PR). Lok Sabha uses FPTP under Article 81.

Static linkage: Parliament and state legislatures, elections.

GS area: Polity, Governance

The 2024 result means the central government must sustain coalition partners whose state-level priorities often differ from central policy.

• Council of Ministers: Articles 74 and 75 govern the Union Council of Ministers. The President acts on the advice of the Cabinet. The Prime Minister is the head of the Council.
• Vote of confidence: Article 75(3) makes the Council collectively responsible to the Lok Sabha. A government that loses majority must resign or seek a vote.
• 10th Schedule relevance: anti-defection law does not prevent a coalition partner from withdrawing support to the government. It only prevents individual MPs from voting against their party whip on a floor vote.
• Coalition compacts: arrangements between coalition parties in India are not constitutionally required. They take the form of political agreements rather than legal documents.
• Historical context: India had coalition governments at the Centre from 1989 to 2014. The UPA-I and UPA-II governments (2004-2014) were coalition arrangements where Congress led without majority on its own.

Static linkage: polity, governance.

GS area: Polity, Governance

Andhra Pradesh held simultaneous Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. The Telugu Desam Party under Chandrababu Naidu won a landslide in the Assembly poll, returning to power.

• Simultaneous elections: Andhra Pradesh had both Lok Sabha and Assembly elections together with the general election. The state's 175-member assembly was up for grabs.
• TDP's result: won approximately 135 of 175 assembly seats, giving it a commanding majority. It also won 16 of Andhra Pradesh's 25 Lok Sabha seats.
• NDA partner: TDP joined the NDA coalition. Its 16 Lok Sabha MPs make it the third-largest component in the NDA after BJP and JD(U).
• YSR Congress Party: the incumbent government of Chief Minister Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy suffered a severe defeat, reduced from its 2019 tally of 151 seats to a handful.
• Odisha: the BJP won the Odisha Assembly election simultaneously, dislodging Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal after 24 years in power.

Static linkage: elections, polity, governance.

GS area: Polity, Elections

In the Indore constituency, NOTA (None of the Above) secured 218,674 votes, emerging as the runner-up. This is the highest NOTA total ever recorded in a single constituency, surpassing the previous record of 51,660 from Gopalganj, Bihar in 2019.

• NOTA: introduced in 2013 following a Supreme Court directive in a Public Interest Litigation filed by the People's Union for Civil Liberties. It allows voters to express dissatisfaction with all candidates.
• No electoral consequence: if NOTA receives the most votes, the second-highest candidate wins. NOTA is not treated as a fictional candidate in most states at the national level.
• Pending petition: a petition before the Supreme Court seeks a declaration that an election should be void if NOTA gets the most votes. Maharashtra and Haryana treat NOTA as a fictional candidate in local body elections.
• Why Indore: the main opposition candidate withdrew from the Indore Lok Sabha seat just before the election, leaving the contest effectively one-sided. Voters who opposed the BJP candidate used NOTA as a protest vehicle.
• Global context: NOTA-like options exist in France, Belgium, Brazil, Finland and Sweden. The implications vary: some countries mandate fresh elections when no candidate crosses a threshold.

Static linkage: elections, polity.

GS area: Polity

The Election Commission managed the world's largest election exercise, deploying electronic voting machines across India.

• Article 324: vests superintendence, direction and control of elections to Parliament, state legislatures, the President and the Vice President in the Election Commission of India.
• Three-member EC: after the Chief Election Commissioner and Other Election Commissioners (Appointment, Conditions of Service and Term of Office) Act 2023, the Election Commission consists of three members: the Chief Election Commissioner and two Election Commissioners. They are now selected by a committee of the Prime Minister, the Leader of the Opposition and a Cabinet Minister.
• Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs): standalone, non-networked machines that record votes. They cannot be connected to the internet. The Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trail (VVPAT) machine prints a paper slip that the voter can verify before it drops into a sealed box.
• Model Code of Conduct: the MCC came into effect on 16 March 2024 when the election schedule was announced and lifted after the results.

Static linkage: elections, polity.

• Stock markets: the BSE Sensex fell over 4,000 points intraday on 4 June as the results diverged sharply from exit-poll projections. Markets recovered partially by close.
• 642 million voters: the absolute participation figure in 2024 is among the highest in any democratic election in history.