15 June 2024

• Defence: SIPRI Yearbook 2024 released: global nuclear warheads at 12,121. India has 172 warheads, surpassing Pakistan's 170. China is expanding rapidly (500 warheads).
• Monsoon: Southwest monsoon arrived in Kerala on schedule. Normal monsoon forecast for 2024.
• Economy: India's HNWI population exceeded 3 million; financial wealth grew 12 per cent.
• Health: STSSacteria spreading in Japan: Group A Streptococcus toxic shock syndrome reaches nearly 1,000 cases.

GS area: International Relations, Security

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released its annual Yearbook in mid-June 2024. Nuclear data is a perennial prelims topic.

• Global nuclear warheads: approximately 12,121 worldwide. The United States and Russia together hold 90 per cent of global nuclear weapons.
• India's nuclear arsenal: 172 warheads as of 2024. India has surpassed Pakistan (170 warheads) for the first time, according to SIPRI estimates.
• China's expansion: approximately 500 warheads. China is expanding its arsenal the fastest of any nuclear state. SIPRI projects it could match US or Russian numbers by 2035 if expansion continues.
• Nine nuclear states: US, Russia, UK, France, China (NPT recognised). India, Pakistan, Israel, North Korea (not NPT signatories or withdrawn).
• India's nuclear doctrine: "No First Use" (NFU) policy, credible minimum deterrence, and massive retaliation against nuclear attack. India's NFU has been periodically questioned by strategists regarding its credibility.
• SIPRI: a Swedish independent think tank founded in 1966. Its data on arms transfers, military expenditure and nuclear weapons is internationally cited. India is not a member state but SIPRI covers India's military thoroughly.
• NPT: the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (1970). India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea are not parties. India argues it was a discriminatory treaty that entrenched the right of five states to have nuclear weapons while denying others.

Static linkage: international relations, security, India's foreign policy.

GS area: Physical Geography, Economy

The Southwest monsoon arrived in Kerala on 31 May 2024, nearly on schedule. The India Meteorological Department forecast a "normal" monsoon for 2024 (96 to 104 per cent of the Long Period Average).

• Southwest monsoon: the summer monsoon that enters India from the southwest, feeding moisture from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Runs June to September. Responsible for about 75 per cent of India's annual rainfall.
• Long Period Average (LPA): the average rainfall measured from 1961 to 2010 (50-year base period) used as the benchmark. LPA for the whole country is approximately 87 centimetres.
• Normal range: rainfall between 96 and 104 per cent of LPA is considered "normal." Below 90 per cent triggers drought alerts.
• Agricultural importance: Kharif crops (rice, maize, cotton, sugarcane, groundnut, soybean) are sown after the monsoon's onset and harvested between September and November.
• Kerala onset date: the traditional monsoon onset at Kerala is set as 1 June. Onset before 1 June (early) or after 1 June (late) is notable. The 2024 onset was 31 May, one day early.
• IMD's monsoon forecast: issued using climate models. The IMD issues two forecasts: the first in April (seasonal outlook) and an updated forecast in June. The April 2024 forecast predicted 106 per cent of LPA, which was then revised.

Static linkage: physical geography, economy.

GS area: Health, Science and Technology

Japan reported nearly 1,000 cases of Streptococcal Toxic Shock Syndrome (STSS) in 2024, an unusually high number.

• STSS: caused by Group A Streptococcus (GAS), a bacterium that normally causes strep throat and mild skin infections. In rare cases, it invades deeper tissues and produces toxins causing septic shock.
• Mechanism: GAS produces superantigens, toxins that trigger an exaggerated immune response, causing multi-organ failure. The syndrome is also called "necrotising fasciitis" when soft tissue destruction is prominent.
• Symptoms: fever, muscle pain, rapid drop in blood pressure, and organ failure. Mortality rate can exceed 30 per cent even with treatment.
• Why Japan saw the surge: seasonal variation, post-COVID immunity gaps, and changes in Streptococcal strain virulence. Similar surges occurred in UK, Europe and US in 2022-23 post-COVID.
• Treatment: high-dose intravenous antibiotics (penicillin class) and surgical debridement where soft tissue is destroyed. Intravenous immunoglobulin is used in severe cases.
• UPSC relevance: STSS was asked in the 2023 prelims in relation to its microbiology. The 2024 surge is a current events hook.

Static linkage: health, science and technology.

GS area: International Relations, Security

India's No First Use nuclear doctrine came under recurring scrutiny as strategic analysts assess its credibility.

• NFU declaration (1998): India declared NFU after the Pokhran-II nuclear tests in May 1998. Pakistan did not make an NFU declaration.
• Massive retaliation threat: India's doctrine holds that any nuclear attack on India or Indian forces will be met with nuclear weapons on a scale to inflict "unacceptable damage."
• Cold Start doctrine: India's conventional military doctrine for rapid mobilisation and offensive thrust into Pakistan. It aims to operate below the nuclear threshold, denying Pakistan the justification for nuclear use.
• Debate: some Indian strategic thinkers argue NFU should be abandoned because nuclear deterrence requires ambiguity. Pakistan's tactical nuclear weapons (Nasr/Hatf-9 missiles) are a specific concern because they are designed for battlefield use.
• China's nuclear posture: China also declares NFU. But its expanding arsenal and development of hypersonic glide vehicles and multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs) complicate strategic calculations.

Static linkage: international relations, security.

GS area: International Relations, Governance

The Sustainable Development Solutions Network's Sustainable Development Report 2024 showed only 16 per cent of SDG targets are on track globally. India ranked 109th of 166 countries.

• SDGs: the 17 Sustainable Development Goals adopted at the UN in 2015 (Agenda 2030). They cover poverty, hunger, health, education, gender equality, water, energy, economic growth, inequality, cities, climate, oceans, biodiversity, peace and governance.
• India's ranking: 109th, which reflects mid-tier progress. India has made gains on SDG 1 (poverty reduction), SDG 7 (energy access) and SDG 9 (infrastructure).
• Weak areas for India: SDG 5 (gender equality), SDG 13 (climate action), SDG 14 (life below water), SDG 15 (life on land) and SDG 16 (peaceful societies).
• Nordic nations leading: Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Norway consistently top the index.
• BRICS progress: BRICS countries show mixed but generally improving trends.
• India's UN multilateralism index ranking: 139th out of 166 countries, suggesting weaker engagement with multilateral processes relative to its size.

Static linkage: international relations, governance.

GS area: Economy, Governance

Farmer protests in 2024 revived the Minimum Support Price (MSP) debate, with demands for a legal guarantee.

• MSP: the price at which the government commits to purchase certain agricultural commodities. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs fixes MSP for 23 crops based on the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP) recommendations.
• CACP: the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices is a statutory body under the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare. It recommends MSP to the government.
• MSP formula: the government uses C2+50% as the principle, where C2 includes all costs including imputed rent for land and imputed interest on owned capital.
• Legal guarantee demand: farmer unions want MSP to be made a statutory right rather than an executive discretion. The government argues this would distort markets and be fiscally unsustainable.
• PM-KISAN: Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi. Provides 6,000 rupees annually to small farmers in three instalments of 2,000 rupees each, directly into bank accounts.
• PMFBY: Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana. Crop insurance scheme with premium rates of 1.5 per cent for Rabi, 2 per cent for Kharif, and 5 per cent for commercial crops from the farmer's side.

Static linkage: economy, agriculture.

• India's monsoon and El Nino: the 2024 monsoon forecast was relatively optimistic because the El Nino event of 2023-24 was weakening. El Nino suppresses Indian monsoon. La Nina (opposite of El Nino) was forecast to develop by mid-2024, which tends to strengthen the monsoon.
• Tarang Shakti 2024: India's first multinational air exercise, to be held in August 2024. Participants include Australia, France, Germany, Japan, Spain, UAE, UK and USA.