5 August 2024

• Bangladesh: Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and fled to India as mass protests breached the security cordon around her residence. The army took control under General Waker-Uz-Zaman.
• Economy: the World Bank's 2024 World Development Report flagged the middle-income trap. India, classified as lower-middle income since 2007, could take 75 years to reach one-quarter of US income per capita at current trends.
• Space: two Indian Air Force Group Captains were selected for NASA's Axiom-4 mission to the International Space Station.
• Trade: India ranked 8th globally in agricultural exports with USD 51 billion, holding a 2.24 per cent share of global agricultural trade, per the WTO's World Trade Statistics 2023.

GS area: International Relations, Polity (comparative)

Sheikh Hasina, Prime Minister of Bangladesh since 2009, resigned on 5 August 2024 and fled to India. The trigger was the student-led protest movement against a job reservation quota, but the deeper cause was accumulated resentment against 15 years of increasingly authoritarian rule:

• Immediate cause: the Bangladesh Supreme Court's June 2024 reinstatement of a 30 per cent quota reserving government jobs for descendants of 1971 Liberation War veterans sparked a student movement that grew into a broader uprising.
• The breaking point: on 4 August, security forces fired on protesters. More than 90 people were killed. The following morning, the army chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman refused to order troops against marchers converging on the Prime Minister's official residence. Hasina had no option but to resign.
• Flight to India: Hasina flew to India, where she received temporary refuge. Her departure was the end of an era for Awami League rule and the regional order that India had cultivated.
• India's strategic loss: Hasina's government had been the most cooperative Bangladeshi administration India had known. Under her tenure, India received transit rights to move goods to its Northeast through Bangladesh, signed a border management agreement that addressed illegal crossings, and maintained close security cooperation. Bangladesh's courts subsequently issued an arrest warrant for Hasina.
• Interim arrangement: a military-supervised caretaker government was to be formed. Nobel laureate economist Muhammad Yunus was subsequently invited to lead it.
• 1971 war background: India played a decisive role in Bangladesh's 1971 Liberation War, providing military support that led to the creation of Bangladesh from former East Pakistan. The quota honouring freedom fighter families was a legacy of that connection.

India's challenge: the successor government was likely to be less friendly. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party, historically closer to Pakistan and China, was positioned to return. India needed to manage a relationship recalibration without losing the gains of the Hasina years.

Static linkage: India-Bangladesh relations, South Asian geopolitics, 1971 Liberation War.

GS area: Economy, International Relations

The World Bank's 2024 World Development Report, themed around the middle-income trap, placed India's trajectory in a sobering light:

• Definition: the middle-income trap is the difficulty countries face in moving from middle-income status (GDP per capita between USD 1,136 and USD 13,845) to high-income status. Growth slows as wages rise but productivity improvements fail to keep pace.
• India's position: classified as a lower-middle income country since 2007. India's GNI per capita stands at USD 2,540. At current growth differentials, India could take 75 years to reach one-quarter of US income per capita.
• Three-pronged prescription: the Report recommends a sequential strategy. First, invest. Then infuse technology. Then innovate. Countries that try to leapfrog without building strong investment and technology transfer foundations typically stall.
• Relevance: India's high headline GDP growth (8.2 per cent in 2023-24) masks per-capita income levels that leave the vast majority of citizens far below developed-country standards. Structural transformation of agriculture, manufacturing and services is the path.

Static linkage: economic development, poverty indicators, India's growth strategy.

GS area: Science and Technology

Two Group Captains from the Indian Air Force were selected to participate in Axiom-4, a privately funded mission to the International Space Station operated by Axiom Space:

• Axiom Space: a US commercial space company that operates private astronaut missions to the ISS.
• Mission context: this is part of India's preparation for the Gaganyaan programme, which aims to send Indian astronauts to low Earth orbit using the indigenous GSLV Mk III rocket and a crew module developed by ISRO.
• ISS: the International Space Station is operated jointly by NASA, Roscosmos, ESA, JAXA and the Canadian Space Agency at an altitude of approximately 400 km.
• Training significance: the two Group Captains were already undergoing astronaut training in Russia as part of Gaganyaan preparations. The Axiom mission provides hands-on spaceflight experience before the domestic mission.

Static linkage: India's space programme, Gaganyaan, ISRO.

• GAIN (Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition): a Swiss foundation launched in 2002 at the UN Special Session on Children. Focuses on food system transformation for better nutrition. Relevant to schemes targeting malnutrition, including Mission Poshan 2.0.
• Sovereign Green Bonds: the second FY25 auction of Sovereign Green Bonds raised Rs 1,697 crore at a yield of 6.90 per cent. Proceeds fund green infrastructure projects under the National Green Hydrogen Mission, renewable energy and public transport.
• High-speed road corridors: the Cabinet approved eight high-speed road corridor projects spanning 936 km at a cost of Rs 50,655 crore. These form part of the Bharatmala Pariyojana greenfield highway programme.
• WTO agricultural exports: India ranked 8th globally with USD 51 billion in agricultural exports in 2023, representing 2.24 per cent of the world total. The top five exporters (EU, US, Brazil, China, Canada) together held 71.9 per cent of global agricultural exports.