22 October 2024

• Demography: Southern India's fertility rates have fallen well below replacement level, raising questions about political representation after delimitation.
• Economy: India's GDP growth was projected at 7 per cent for FY 2024-25 by the IMF. UPI transaction volumes crossed 13,116 crore in FY 2023-24.
• Environment: Bioluminescent waves were observed at Chennai's East Coast Road beach, caused by the phytoplankton Noctiluca scintillans.
• Railways: Indian Railways cut the Advance Reservation Period from 120 to 60 days effective November 2024, with exceptions for foreign tourists.

GS area: Society, Polity (Demography, Representation)

Southern states are approaching an unusual demographic situation: declining populations relative to the north, which has implications for parliamentary representation.

• Total Fertility Rate in south: States like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh have TFRs of 1.6 to 1.8, well below the replacement level of 2.1.
• Kerala's ageing: Kerala's population aged 60 and above will rise from 13 per cent (2011) to an estimated 23 per cent by 2036.
• Political consequence: Parliamentary seats are apportioned by population. A delimitation exercise (scheduled after the first post-2026 census) could reduce southern states' Lok Sabha seats while increasing those in more populous northern states.
• Southern states' argument: They have succeeded in development outcomes (education, health, gender equity) that naturally reduce fertility. Penalising them through seat reduction creates a perverse incentive.
• Share of population growth: Southern states will contribute only 9 per cent of India's population growth between 2011 and 2036. Northern states (Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh) will contribute the majority.
• Constitutional position: The 42nd Amendment froze delimitation until the first census after 2001. It was later extended through the 84th Amendment to the first census after 2026.

Static linkage: Delimitation, population policy, federal representation (Polity and Society).

GS area: Economy

A review of India's economic position in October 2024 consolidated several indicators.

• GDP growth: IMF projected 7 per cent for FY 2024-25, making India the fastest-growing major economy.
• Stock market: Indian stock markets delivered a 15 per cent CAGR over five years. BSE Sensex crossed 85,000 in October 2024.
• UPI transactions: Rose from 92 crore in FY 2017-18 to 13,116 crore in FY 2023-24. UPI accounted for roughly 80 per cent of all digital payment transactions in India.
• Startups: India has 151,000 DPIIT-recognised startups, the third-largest startup ecosystem globally after the United States and China.
• PMJDY: 53 crore bank accounts have been opened under the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana.

Static linkage: Economic indicators, digital payments, financial inclusion (Economy).

GS area: Economy, Governance (Infrastructure)

Indian Railways reduced the Advance Reservation Period from 120 days to 60 days for most services, effective from 1 November 2024.

• Rationale: An analysis found that 88 to 90 per cent of bookings happen within 60 days of travel. The 120-day window created speculative booking that inflated cancellation rates to 21 per cent. Shorter ARP reduces the number of seats held speculatively.
• Exception: Foreign tourists can continue booking up to 365 days in advance through Foreign Tourist Quota windows.
• Tatkal quota: Not affected by the change. Tatkal bookings open one day before departure and carry a premium.
• Impact: Higher seat availability closer to departure, fewer empty seats on trains with high cancellation rates.

Static linkage: Railways policy, ticketing reform (Economy and Governance).

GS area: International Relations (Economy, Energy)

The global "shadow fleet" of oil tankers evading sanctions on Russia remained in focus as India continued to buy Russian crude.

• Shadow Fleet definition: A loose network of ships that obscure their ownership, destination, and cargo origins to bypass international sanctions. Ships change flags, use shell companies in multiple jurisdictions, and turn off Automatic Identification System transponders.
• Flags of Convenience: Many shadow fleet vessels sail under the flags of countries (Palau, Cameroon, Sierra Leone, Gabon) that offer flag registration for a fee without stringent oversight.
• India's exposure: India is the largest buyer of Russian crude. Many of the tankers delivering Russian oil to Indian refineries are shadow fleet vessels. This raises insurance, safety, and regulatory concerns for Indian ports.
• Indian Register of Shipping (IRS): Established in 1975. Became chair of the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS) in 2019. The IRS classifies Indian ships and some international vessels for safety standards.

Static linkage: Russia sanctions, energy security, maritime law (International Relations and Economy).

GS area: Science and Technology (Marine Biology)

Bioluminescent waves were observed along Chennai's East Coast Road beach in October 2024.

• Cause: The phytoplankton Noctiluca scintillans, commonly called "sea sparkle." When disturbed (by waves, swimming, or boat movement), it emits a blue-green bioluminescent flash.
• Mechanism: Noctiluca contains luciferin, a compound that reacts with oxygen via the enzyme luciferase to produce light without significant heat.
• Ecological role: Bioluminescence serves defensive functions (startling predators) and possibly communication. Noctiluca is not toxic but its blooms can deplete oxygen in the water, creating dead zones for fish.
• Indian Ocean occurrences: Observed in Rameswaram, Lakshadweep, Mumbai, and the Andaman Islands. Associated with calm sea conditions and high phytoplankton density.

Static linkage: Marine biology, bioluminescence, coastal ecosystems (Science and Technology).

GS area: Science and Technology, Economy (Transport)

Green hydrogen fuel cell buses were discussed in the context of India's urban transport decarbonisation plans.

• How fuel cells work: Hydrogen gas reacts with atmospheric oxygen in the fuel cell. The reaction produces electricity and water vapour. No combustion occurs, so no CO₂ or particulate emissions result.
• Green hydrogen requirement: The fuel cell is zero-emission only if the hydrogen it uses was produced by electrolysis using renewable electricity. If the hydrogen comes from grey sources, the bus still has an indirect carbon footprint.
• India's pilots: Pilot fuel cell bus projects have been launched in Pune and New Delhi. The buses are significantly more expensive than battery electric buses currently.
• Advantage over batteries: Faster fuelling than battery charging and longer range, making fuel cells more suited for heavy-duty transport (trucks, buses, trains) than personal vehicles.

Static linkage: Hydrogen economy, clean transport, Mission LiFE (Science and Economy).