5 March 2026

• Nepal: Polling day. The Rastriya Swatantra Party led in early counts. Balen Shah on course to become PM.
• West Asia: US submarine sank IRIS Dena (previous day confirmed). 200 tankers stranded in the strait.
• Energy: India's crude reserves cover only 25 days. Qatar LNG halt affects 40 per cent of India's gas imports.
• Karnataka: SC reservation deadlock; recruitment of 56,432 posts stalled.
• Health: India second globally for children with high BMI on World Obesity Atlas 2026 data.

GS area: International Relations (neighbourhood)

Nepal's House of Representatives election was held on March 5. The early count picture:

• RSP landslide: The Rastriya Swatantra Party was leading in 110 of 165 first-past-the-post constituencies by end of day. The Nepali Congress and CPN-UML were reduced to single-digit leads.
• Balen Shah: The 35-year-old structural engineer and former Kathmandu Mayor was the RSP's PM candidate. He defeated incumbent K.P. Sharma Oli by about 49,614 votes in Jhapa-5, Oli's stronghold.
• Why RSP won: September 2025 Gen-Z protests toppled K.P. Sharma Oli's government after 77 deaths including 19 from police firing. RSP channelled that anti-establishment energy into an electoral mandate.
• Nepal's Constitution (2015): The House of Representatives has 275 seats: 165 FPTP and 110 PR. A majority government requires 138 seats. If RSP secured 125 or more FPTP seats, the PR seats would likely deliver a majority.
• India's strategic read: The RSP has no deep ideological bias toward India or China. A fresh government without baggage from earlier disputes (the Lipulekh border row, the Kalapani map controversy) was an opportunity for India to reset the relationship.
• Pancheshwar Multipurpose Project: A 6,000 MW hydropower project on the Mahakali River, a joint India-Nepal venture long delayed by disagreements. A new Nepali government with a fresh mandate could restart talks.

Static linkage: India-Nepal relations, neighbourhood policy (GS II).

GS area: International Relations, Internal Security

The confirmed facts from the March 4 sinking, relevant to the March 5 analysis:

• The sinking: First torpedo sinking of a warship since World War II, per US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. 83 Iranian sailors killed. 32 rescued by Sri Lanka Navy.
• India's reaction: The Foreign Secretary conveyed condolences to Iran. No formal condemnation of the US strike was issued. India maintained strategic ambiguity, consistent with its policy since the war began on February 28.
• INS Lavan docked at Kochi: India allowed an Iranian naval vessel to dock for refuelling and provisions. This was framed as humanitarian rather than political. Iran credited India and Sri Lanka for assisting its ships.
• Indian Navy's posture: Operation Sankalp ships were on standby. The Indian Navy's role is escort and HADR in this theatre, not combat engagement.
• LEMOA and COMCASA: India again clarified these agreements do not create treaty-alliance obligations.

Static linkage: Indian Ocean security, India's strategic autonomy (GS II, International Relations).

GS area: Economy (energy security)

The strait closure produced tangible shipping data:

• Stranded vessels: About 200 oil tankers, 50 gas carriers, and 250 bulk carriers were stranded around the Strait of Hormuz by March 5.
• Insurance: War-risk insurance premiums surged 10 to 15 times normal rates. Many smaller shipping companies could not afford coverage, removing vessels from the India trade route.
• Brent crude: Above $85 a barrel. Each $10 rise adds roughly $12 to $14 billion to India's annual import bill.
• LNG alternative sources: Norway and the US can supply LNG but the lead time is 2 months. The spot price had already risen from $6 to $8 per mmBtu to $15.
• Essential Commodities Act invoked: The government used the Essential Commodities Act of 1955 to direct LPG allocation. Household use was prioritised. Fertilizer plants received 70 per cent of normal allocation. Industrial users received less.

Static linkage: Energy security, commodity law (GS III).

GS area: Polity (social justice)

With Karnataka's deadlock continuing, it is useful to map the full constitutional framework for SC reservations:

• Article 341: Authorises the President to specify which communities are Scheduled Castes in each state and union territory. The Presidential Order is the definitive list.
• Article 15(4): Enables the state to make special provisions for the advancement of SC, ST, and Other Backward Classes (OBCs).
• Article 16(4): Enables reservation in government jobs for classes not adequately represented.
• Indra Sawhney (1992): Established the 50 per cent cap on total reservation and the creamy layer concept for OBCs.
• Davinder Singh (2024): Held that sub-classification within the SC list is permissible for states to prioritise the most disadvantaged sub-groups. Evidence must precede sub-classification.
• E.V. Chinnaiah (2004): Overruled by Davinder Singh. It had held that SCs form a homogenous class and states cannot make internal distinctions.

The exam traps: confusing which judgment was overruled; confusing creamy layer (OBC concept, not yet fully applied to SCs) with sub-classification (a different concept).

Static linkage: Reservation jurisprudence, Articles 15, 16, 341 (GS II).

GS area: Economy (energy security)

A clean summary of India's strategic petroleum buffer:

• Crude SPR: Three underground rock cavern facilities. Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh), Mangaluru (Karnataka), and Padur (Karnataka). Total capacity: 5.33 million metric tonnes.
• Days of cover: At India's normal crude consumption rate this translates to roughly 9 to 10 days of import cover. Some government figures cite 25 days by including product stocks and pipeline inventory.
• Phase II sites: Chandikhol (Odisha) and additional Padur expansion were approved for Phase II. They are not yet operational.
• IEA standard: The IEA's minimum benchmark is 90 days of net petroleum imports. India is an Association Country of the IEA, not a full member, but the benchmark is used as a planning target.
• Operating body: Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Limited under the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas.

The policy gap: India tripled its LPG consumption through PMUY from 2016 onward without building matching LPG strategic storage. The only operational LPG storage cavern is in Visakhapatnam with 60,000 metric tonnes capacity (under 2 days of LPG consumption).

Static linkage: Energy security, strategic reserves (GS III).

GS area: Society, Health

Expanding on the World Obesity Day data with India-specific policy context:

• ICDS (Integrated Child Development Services): The oldest child nutrition scheme. Covers children under 6 with supplementary nutrition, health check-ups, and pre-school education. It does not address obesity; it targets undernutrition.
• POSHAN Abhiyan: The 2018 National Nutrition Mission targets stunting, wasting, anaemia, and low birth weight. Obesity is not a metric.
• The gap: No national programme explicitly targets childhood or adolescent obesity. The frameworks are built for deficit, not excess.
• School meals: The PM POSHAN programme covers Classes 1 to 8. The mid-day meal addresses caloric intake but not food quality or physical activity.
• SDG 2: "Zero Hunger" in the SDG framework covers all forms of malnutrition including both undernutrition and obesity. India's policy architecture addresses mainly the former.

Static linkage: Nutrition policy, SDG 2 (GS II).

• Demographic dividend and skill gap: India's demographic dividend runs through approximately 2040. Only 1.3 per cent of secondary students are in vocational education against 50 per cent in Germany and China. The NEP 2020 target of 50 per cent vocational enrolment by 2025 was missed.
• Rs 91.49 to dollar: On March 3-5 the rupee held around this level. The RBI intervened in the foreign exchange market by selling dollars to contain the fall. Open Market Operations to inject rupee liquidity were also announced.