The Coalition Decades (1996–2019)

By the mid-1990s India had entered the era of coalitions. No single party could win a majority, and regional and caste-based parties held the balance of power. Over two decades that order itself changed: the Vajpayee NDA lasted a full term, the UPA under Manmohan Singh governed through a decade of rights-based welfare laws, and in 2014 and 2019 the BJP under Narendra Modi won outright majorities. This reading traces the journey from fragile coalitions to dominant mandates.

The 1996 election produced a fractured verdict. The BJP emerged as the largest party but lacked the numbers to govern.

• Vajpayee's 13 days: Invited to form a government in May 1996, Atal Bihari Vajpayee could not find allies. He resigned after just 13 days rather than lose a confidence vote.
• The United Front: A United Front of some 13 parties (including the National Front, the DMK and the Asom Gana Parishad) then governed under Deve Gowda, with outside support from the Congress. It fell in April 1997 when the Congress withdrew support. A compromise made I.K. Gujral Prime Minister.
• The Gujral Doctrine: Gujral's policy of friendship with neighbours rested on non-reciprocity. With smaller neighbours like Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, India would give all it could in good faith without asking for anything in return. The aim was peace in South Asia. His government fell when the Congress withdrew support over the Jain Commission report on Rajiv Gandhi's assassination, which had criticised the DMK.

Alongside the OBCs (through Mandal) and Hindus (through the Mandir campaign), the Dalits were now organised into their own political force.

• Kanshi Ram: In the 1970s Kanshi Ram quit his government job to mobilise Dalit employees into BAMCEF (the All India Backward and Minority Communities Employees Federation).
• The Bahujan Samaj Party: He then founded the BSP to represent Dalits along with other backward castes and minorities, the "bahujan" (majority). Its main base was Uttar Pradesh. The BSP argued that the Congress had used Dalits as a mere vote bank, while the BSP stood for social justice.
• Mayawati: Kanshi Ram's protege Mayawati built alliances with other groups. In June 1995 she became the first Dalit woman Chief Minister in India (of UP). Her early terms were short, but she ran a full term as UP Chief Minister from 2007 to 2012.

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) under Vajpayee became the first non-Congress government to last a full term (1999–2004).

• Pokhran II, Operation Shakti (1998): In May 1998 India conducted five nuclear tests at Pokhran, the second time after 1974. Vajpayee declared India a full-fledged nuclear state. The chief scientists were A.P.J. Abdul Kalam and R. Chidambaram. 11 May is National Technology Day. The US imposed sanctions. Pakistan replied with its own tests (Chagai) that month.
• The Lahore Summit (1999): Vajpayee then sought peace. The Delhi-Lahore bus was inaugurated. At Lahore in February 1999 he and Pakistan's Nawaz Sharif signed the Lahore Declaration, committing both countries to dialogue.
• The Kargil War (1999): Within months, Pakistani soldiers and militants (under General Musharraf's plan) infiltrated the heights around Kargil. India launched Operation Vijay, with the air force's Operation Safed Sagar, but was told not to cross the Line of Control. India recaptured the peaks, including Tiger Hill. By 26 July the war was over with India victorious. The triumph boosted Vajpayee's image.

Re-elected after Kargil, Vajpayee led the NDA's second stint (1999–2004).

• Economic and social steps: The NDA carried liberalisation forward with an infrastructure focus: the National Highways Development Project / Golden Quadrilateral, the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (rural roads), telecom reform, and the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act (2003). It pushed education through the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan. The 86th Amendment (2002) made the Right to Education a Fundamental Right (Article 21-A).
• Terror and Pakistan: The IC-814 hijack (December 1999) forced the release of militants including Masood Azhar. The Agra summit (2001) with Musharraf failed. The attack on Parliament (December 2001) by Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed led to POTA, an anti-terror law.
• Godhra and the Gujarat riots (2002): In February 2002 the Sabarmati Express caught fire at Godhra, killing pilgrims returning from Ayodhya. The riots that followed, chiefly in Ahmedabad and Baroda, were called a pogrom. Chief Minister Narendra Modi was criticised for failing to control the violence, which recalled the anti-Sikh riots of 1984.
• The 2004 verdict: The NDA's full term showed that a credible non-Congress alternative existed and that coalitions could govern. Confident after good economic numbers, the BJP called early polls on the slogan "India Shining". It misread the mood and was defeated. The Congress, led by Sonia Gandhi, emerged as the largest party.

The Congress formed the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) with allies and outside support from the Left. Sonia Gandhi declined the Prime Minister's office, citing her "inner voice". She nominated the economist Manmohan Singh, architect of the 1991 reforms, sworn in on 22 May 2004. A Common Minimum Programme (CMP), shaped by the Left and the National Advisory Council under Sonia Gandhi, gave the government a "left-of-centre" tilt.

• Rights-based laws: The first term passed the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA, 2006), later MNREGA, guaranteeing 100 days of paid work a year to rural households, the largest scheme of its kind; the Right to Information Act (2005), letting any citizen demand information from a public authority; the National Rural Health Mission (2005); and the VAT (2005).
• The Indo-US nuclear deal: Manmohan Singh staked his government on the Indo-US civil nuclear agreement, finalised in 2008. It ended a 30-year ban on nuclear trade with India in return for IAEA inspection of civil reactors. The Left withdrew support, but he survived a confidence vote in July 2008.
• Other first-term landmarks: Pratibha Patil became the first woman President of India (2007). Terror attacks shadowed 2007–08, the worst being the 26 November 2008 Mumbai attacks (26/11): Lashkar-e-Taiba gunmen came by sea, nine were killed, and Ajmal Kasab was captured and later hanged in 2012.

The UPA returned to power in 2009, helped by the welfare schemes and the nuclear deal. Manmohan Singh became the first PM since Nehru to be re-elected after a full term.

• The Right to Education Act (2009): Giving effect to Article 21-A, the RTE Act made free and compulsory education a right for children aged 6–14 and reserved 25% of private-school seats for weaker sections.
• Telangana: A long agitation, revived under K. Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR), led the Centre to clear the Telangana Bill in February 2014. Andhra Pradesh was divided, the new state was born in June 2014, and Hyderabad served as a shared capital for ten years.
• The National Food Security Act (2013): It provided subsidised foodgrains to a large share of the population through the public distribution system.
• The Nirbhaya case: The December 2012 Delhi gang rape ("Nirbhaya") sparked nationwide protests. The government set up the J.S. Verma Committee and passed the Criminal Law (Amendment) Act, 2013, which defined and stiffened punishment for acid attacks, stalking, voyeurism and rape, and raised the age of consent.

The era closed amid corruption controversies that set the stage for the 2014 verdict.

The 2014 election to the 16th Lok Sabha was fought almost as a contest of personalities: the Congress projected Rahul Gandhi, the BJP chose Narendra Modi, the long-serving Gujarat Chief Minister. Modi campaigned on development rather than identity and used social media professionally. The BJP won 282 seats, the first single-party majority in three decades, raising its vote share from about 19 to about 31 per cent. The Congress fell to 44 seats, its worst-ever showing. Modi was sworn in on 26 May 2014, with all SAARC heads invited in a diplomatic first. The slogans were "Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas" and "minimum government, maximum governance".

• NITI Aayog: On 1 January 2015 the Planning Commission was replaced by the NITI Aayog (National Institution for Transforming India), a policy think tank meant to promote cooperative federalism by drawing states into policy-making rather than allocating funds to them.
• Digital India and the JAM trinity: The Digital India campaign (2014) rested on the JAM trinity to plug welfare leakages: Jan Dhan bank accounts (Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana) for the unbanked; Aadhaar, the 12-digit biometric identity begun under the previous government and given statutory backing in 2016; and Mobile numbers for direct transfer of subsidies. UPI and BHIM made cashless payments common.
• Demonetisation: On 8 November 2016, Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes ceased to be legal tender from midnight. The stated aims were to strike at "black" money, fake currency and terror financing. The impact was mixed: severe hardship in the cash-driven informal and farm sectors, and critics said black money survived, though the tax base widened and digital payments accelerated.
• The Goods and Services Tax: The GST, enacted through the 101st Constitutional Amendment (2016) and launched in 2017, replaced a tangle of central and state taxes with a single tax overseen by the GST Council of central and state finance ministers. Despite a complex rollout and the compliance burden on small firms, it was seen as the biggest tax reform since independence.
• Other economic measures: Make in India (2014), with Start Up India, Stand Up India and Skill India; the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (2016) for bad debts; the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act (2016) for homebuyers; the Fugitive Economic Offenders Act (2018); and a tighter benami property law.

• Welfare schemes: Swachh Bharat Mission (2014), a sanitation drive to end open defecation; Ujjwala Yojana for clean cooking-gas connections to poor households; Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana for housing and the Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Gram Jyoti Yojana for village electrification; Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao and Sukanya Samriddhi Yojana (2015) for the girl child; and Ayushman Bharat (2018), government health insurance, with a new National Health Policy.
• A society in transition: The Supreme Court read down Article 377 in 2018, decriminalising homosexuality, building on its 2017 right to privacy judgement. It struck down triple talaq, which the government then moved to make unlawful. The Sabarimala judgement, allowing women of all ages into the temple, drew large protests.
• Social strains: Reports of mob lynching rose, often filmed and shared on social media, with Muslims and Dalits among those targeted on charges such as cow slaughter. The Supreme Court directed governments to act firmly. Critics noted hyper-nationalism and fake news sharpening divisions, while job creation lagged despite Make in India.
• Kashmir and Pakistan: After the Uri attack on an army camp in September 2016, India announced surgical strikes across the Line of Control. After the Pulwama attack of February 2019 killed 40 CRPF personnel, the air force carried out the Balakot airstrike inside Pakistan, the first such action since 1971. In a brief aerial clash, pilot Abhinandan Varthaman was captured and then released.
• Internal security: The Maoist threat receded in many areas through better roads and trained forces, though Chhattisgarh still saw attacks. In Jammu and Kashmir a BJP-PDP coalition governed from 2015 until the BJP withdrew in 2018.
• Foreign policy: India moved from strict non-alignment to issue-based alignment: neighbourhood diplomacy (a land-boundary settlement with Bangladesh in 2015, better ties with Nepal and Sri Lanka); deeper partnership with the United States and Japan, and membership of the Quad (US, Japan, Australia); the Act East Policy, upgrading the old Look East Policy; a stand-off with China at Doklam in 2017; and a founding role, with France, in the International Solar Alliance.

The election to the 17th Lok Sabha, held in seven phases with results on 23 May 2019, returned the NDA with a strengthened mandate.

• The result: The NDA won 353 seats, the BJP alone 303, with fresh inroads including West Bengal. The Congress won 52. This was the first time a non-Congress party won a full second term with a single-party majority.
• Why the NDA won: The BJP's organisation and Amit Shah's campaign strategy; Modi's image as a hard-working, non-corrupt leader; welfare schemes that gave even those still waiting for benefits a sense of hope; and the firm handling of Pakistan, especially Balakot, which made national security a dominant theme.
• The new government: Modi was sworn in on 30 May 2019, with S. Jaishankar as External Affairs Minister and Amit Shah as Home Minister. The slogan widened to "Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, Sabka Vishwas", adding the winning of trust. Observers cautioned that a healthy democracy needs a strong opposition, which had been sharply reduced.