5 May 2023

• Climate: The WMO warned of a 60 per cent chance of El Nino developing between May and July 2023, threatening India's southwest monsoon.
• RBI: The annual Report on Currency and Finance flagged India's climate financing gap at 2.5 per cent of GDP annually.
• World Bank: The Business Ready project replaces the discontinued Doing Business index starting with a pilot of 54 economies.
• Aviation: CORSIA, the carbon offsetting scheme for international aviation, entered its mandatory phase.
• Agriculture: India's 2023-24 coal production target was set at 1,012 million tonnes.

GS area: Geography (Climate, Monsoon)

The World Meteorological Organisation issued a warning that there is a 60 per cent chance of El Nino developing between May and July 2023.

• What El Nino is: A warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It disrupts global atmospheric circulation patterns.
• India's southwest monsoon: El Nino conditions typically suppress the southwest monsoon (June to September). Deficient rainfall hurts kharif crops, raises food prices and reduces reservoir levels.
• India's northeast monsoon: El Nino conditions tend to strengthen the northeast monsoon (October to December), which is important for Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and parts of Kerala.
• IMD's 2023 forecast: The India Meteorological Department forecast a normal monsoon at 96 per cent of the long-period average (plus or minus 5 per cent). The long-period average is 87 centimetres.
• 1.5 degree threshold: The WMO also noted a 50:50 chance that global temperature would temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels during one of the next five years.
• EW4All initiative: A UN initiative targeting coverage of the entire world with early warning systems by 2027.

India's agriculture sector directly depends on the southwest monsoon. About 60 per cent of cultivated area receives no irrigation and depends entirely on rainfall. The monsoon drives roughly 70 per cent of India's annual rainfall.

Static linkage: Monsoon, ENSO, agriculture (Geography/Economy).

GS area: Economy (Environment, Finance)

The RBI's 2022-23 Report on Currency and Finance focused on climate change. Theme: "Towards a Greener Cleaner India."

• Annual investment gap: India needs additional investment of about 2.5 per cent of GDP annually by 2030 to build climate-resilient infrastructure.
• GDP loss projection: India could lose 3 to 10 per cent of GDP annually by 2100 due to climate change.
• Job impact: About 34 million jobs could be lost from heat stress by 2030.
• Bank vulnerability: The RBI noted that public sector banks may be more vulnerable to climate-related financial stress than private sector banks.
• CBDC and environment: The report observed that a Central Bank Digital Currency can be more environment-friendly than alternatives because it reduces cash handling and transportation.
• RBI's own actions: The RBI joined the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). It issued India's first sovereign green bonds.

Static linkage: Climate finance, RBI mandate, green bonds (Economy).

GS area: Economy (International institutions)

The World Bank launched the Business Ready project to replace the Doing Business index, which was scrapped in 2021 following a data manipulation scandal.

• Why Doing Business was discontinued: An internal investigation found that data for several countries, including China, Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan, had been manipulated to improve their rankings under pressure from senior World Bank management.
• Business Ready scope: First pilot: 54 economies. Expected to scale to 180 economies by 2025-26.
• What it covers: Business entry, location, utilities, labour, financial services, international trade, taxation, dispute resolution, market competition and insolvency.
• First report: Spring 2024, with annual publication thereafter.

Static linkage: World Bank, ease of doing business, trade indices (Economy/International Relations).

GS area: Environment (International conventions, Climate)

The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) is an ICAO initiative.

• ICAO goals: 2 per cent annual fuel efficiency improvement through 2050; carbon-neutral growth from 2020; net zero by 2050.
• CORSIA structure:
  • Phase 1 (2021 to 2023): Voluntary for participating states.
  • Phase 2 (2024 to 2026): Mandatory for large aviation states.
  • Phase 3 (2027 to 2035): Mandatory for all states.
• Emission target: Reduce CO2 by 50 per cent by 2050 compared to 2005 levels.
• India's position: India joins CORSIA from 2027 under the Phase 3 mandatory track.

Static linkage: ICAO, climate change conventions, aviation (Environment/International Relations).

GS area: Economy (Energy)

The Ministry of Coal set the production target for 2023-24 at 1,012 million tonnes.

• Capex target: 21,030 crore rupees.
• Commercial mining: 25 new commercial mining allocations planned.
• India's global position: Fifth largest coal reserves globally; second largest producer after China.
• Share in power: Coal accounts for almost 50 per cent of India's installed electricity generation capacity.
• Diversification push: Coal to hydrogen, coal gasification and coal-bed methane development are being explored.

Static linkage: Coal sector, energy policy, commercial mining (Economy).

• Rang Ghar (Assam): Located in Sivasagar district. Built in the mid-18th century under Swargadeo Pramatta Singha of the Ahom dynasty. Considered Asia's first amphitheatre. Two-storey octagonal structure with an inverted boat-shaped roof topped with stone crocodiles. The PM's 100th Man Ki Baat episode was held with a laser show there.
• Global Food Crises Report 2023: About 258 million people across 58 countries face acute food insecurity. Fourth consecutive year of increases. Primary drivers: economic shocks (COVID-19, Ukraine war), conflict and climate extremes. Released by the Food Security Information Network (FSIN).
• Krishi Mapper: An integrated mobile application giving farmers access to soil health, weather, crop health, crop suitability and land-use data to improve agricultural productivity.